Sunspots, Hurricanes and Glaciers
It is all about sunspots


DUE TO CHANGES IN NOAA COUNT AND how they use to do things, and my other source liked to combine numbers, I am reviewing all my Atlantic Basin Storm number count.  There is also an effort that was ongoing the last I checked where each hurricane season is being fully reevaluated.

I also want to add Pacific count and Accumulated Cyclone Data.  It was brought out in the 3rd Hurricane Conference a few years ago, Rhodes, Greece, that the numbers of the Pacific and Atlantic appear to cycle.  The cycle being, one basin is stronger than the other and they flip each year.

Also, tropical depressions are being thrown in the mix.  Now, I will have to re-look at all the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) data to see how much that has changed.

Finally, SIDC has answered a few questions for me which goes up directly against other opinions on other web sites.  I will stay with SIDC since the few that object to SIDC won't step forward with better data other than just a gripe and popularity in science blogs.

So, it will take some time to re-look at all my papers.

Generally speaking the Hurricane Season Data is off and possibly the ACE.  I will leave the rest in place for now

Paul Pierett, Feb. 7, 2015.


Before there was radar, airplane hurricane searches and satellite, shore observations was all we had for hurricane numbers.  In the January, 1878, pages 365-367, Issue of Popular Science, when sunspot activity was considered a Natural Law of Science, the following was put forth:

More sunspots, more hurricanes

More sunspots, more shipping disasters, up 17%

More sunspots, more rain, up 26%

More sunspots, higher temperatures

Less sunspots, the opposite was true. 

Presently, we are between Ice Ages. We should slip off into another ice age in about 10,000 years. We may have had up to five to seven ice ages in the last million years.

We know of two sunspot cycles.  One is the typical 11-year cycle that varies from about 10 to 12 years.

The second cycle is the 100-year cycle the last one was measured within 5% accuracy, per the SIDC.  Part of that 100-year cycle is a solar minimum.

We are presently in a sunspot minimum that will bring on more drought; possibly more wet weather in England; eventually longer winters and winters without summers (Corrected). The minimum will last through at least two sunspot cycles before we see the climate lag drop off about 2035.

There may be a third sunspot cycle and that one may last ??? a 1,000+ years at a glance.  The Earth was in a Medieval Global Warming Period a 1000+ years ago.

The last one dropped into the Mini-Ice Age about 400 to 450 years ago.  We came out of that solar minimum 300 years ago based on sunspot number activity. 

Maybe, we are now in another global warming period that has yet to be measured.  We won't be around to know.  That will take a few centuries yet.

Editied 15 April 2013